Fitch: The UK is still expected to experience a mild recession in the second half of 2023, as higher interest burdens will squeeze household spending.

Fitch: Although a recession is now expected to occur in the first half of 2024, a mild recession is still expected in the United States.

Agency comments on U.S. CPI data: A key number in today’s report bodes well for the coming months: the weighted average of “owner equivalent rent” and “principal residence rent” in August as the two largest categories of core inflation It rose 0.4%, the smallest gain since December 2021.

Agency comments on U.S. CPI data: Prices of core services other than housing have always been the focus of Fed policymakers, and this time they recorded the largest increase since March. This is another dismal number for the Fed.

[After the release of CPI data, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in September dropped to 91%] According to CME "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% in September is 91%, with 25 interest rate hikes. The probability of the base point reaching the range of 5.50%-5.75% is 9%; the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged by November is 56.1%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate hike of 25 basis points is 40.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 3.4% .

Market News: German regulators said they will review the results of France’s investigation into Apple’s iPhone 12 and consider possible measures.

The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield rose 4 basis points to 4.314%.

The Australian dollar AUD/USD fell 0.50% on the day and is now at 0.6392.

U.S. Treasury yields rose after the CPI data was released, with the 10-year yield rising 7.20 basis points to 4.336%.

The annual rate of housing inflation in the United States was 7.3% in August, which was not seasonally adjusted, compared with the previous value of 7.7%.

The annual rate of used car and truck inflation in the United States was -6.6% in August, which was not seasonally adjusted, compared with -5.6% in the previous month.

The annual rate of new car inflation in the United States was 2.9% in August, which was not seasonally adjusted, compared with the previous value of 3.5%.

The annual rate of energy inflation in the United States, which was not seasonally adjusted, was -3.6% in August, compared with -12.5% in the previous month.

The unseasonally adjusted annual food inflation rate in the United States was 4.3% in August, compared with the previous value of 4.9%.

German government official: UN Security Council reform is more urgent than ever.

[Before the release of CPI data, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 93%] According to CME "Fed Watch": The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% in September is 93% and raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The probability of reaching the 5.50%-5.75% range is 7%; the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged by November is 57.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate hike is 39.9%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point interest rate hike is 2.7%.