[Daily Outlook] The "granary of Europe" is in a quagmire, and commodities such as wheat, aluminum, and nickel have soared across the board

2022-02-23 11:54:36

01

Ukraine Crisis Tracker: Economic Sanctions, Troop Movements, Diplomatic Boycotts... The U.S. Responds to Russia Comprehensively:

U.S. President Joe Biden said that Russia is starting to invade Ukraine, and the United States will impose the first round of sanctions. Secretary of State Blinken said he would not meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov this week as planned. The targets of new sanctions announced by Biden include Russia's sovereign debt, the country's "elite and its family members" and more. Senior U.S. officials said they were ready to take action against institutions such as Sberbank and VTB. German Chancellor Scholz has decided to suspend the certification process for the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline. U.S. Defense Secretary Austin has ordered some troops stationed in the U.S. and Europe to be temporarily relocated further east to support NATO allies closer to the Russian border. Moscow announced that it had decided to evacuate people from Ukraine to protect the lives and safety of diplomats and employees of embassies and consulates. Is the recognition of the two self-proclaimed republics of the Udong separatist forces an invasion of Ukraine? Western countries seem to have different opinions on this issue. The Ukrainian foreign minister, who is visiting Washington, has asked the United States and Britain to increase their supply of defense weapons.

02

The "granary of Europe" is in a quagmire, and commodities such as wheat, aluminum, and nickel have soared across the board:

From wheat and corn to aluminum and nickel, many commodities extended their gains. Concerns about supply disruptions rose after Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized two self-styled republics by separatist forces in eastern Ukraine. The EU and the UK have drawn up a preliminary sanctions plan against Moscow. For weeks, the United States and its allies have warned that Putin may plan to invade Ukraine, which the Russian government has repeatedly denied. Ukraine Crisis Tracker: Biden to speak on situation; Kiev calls for increased arms supply Russia and Ukraine are the world's major suppliers of wheat, corn and sunflower oil, and Ukraine's fertile soil has earned it the title of "Europe's breadbasket". The country is the world's second largest exporter of grains, while Russia regularly tops the global wheat export rankings and is one of the world's most important sources of metals, including aluminium and nickel. Rising wheat and aluminium prices will add to inflationary pressures already sweeping the world.

03

Iran nuclear talks are drawing to a close, with important decisions on global energy markets set to be made this week:

European and Russian diplomats agree that negotiations over Iran's nuclear program are in the final stages. This suggests that global energy markets could be given a breather if the two sides can agree to resolve their eventual differences. A decision on the resumption of the Iran nuclear deal is expected this week, according to a statement posted on Twitter by French, Russian and British negotiators in Vienna. An unnamed European official said the parties are expected to hold a joint committee meeting later this week at which a decision will be finalized.

04

U.S. consumer confidence fell to a five-month low, weighed down by inflation:

U.S. consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since September in February, as consumer expectations for economic growth and financial prospects slipped as inflation hit multi-decade highs. A report released on Tuesday by the World Large Business Research Council showed that the consumer confidence index fell to 110.5, after the previous month's data was revised down to 111.1. Economists polled by Bloomberg had expected 110. Americans are experiencing the highest inflation since the early 1980s, with prices rising much faster than wages. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine could further damage consumer confidence, especially if gasoline prices continue to rise. In addition, soaring mortgage rates have also added to the pressure on home loans. The consumer expectations index fell to 87.5, a five-month low. The current conditions index rose to 145.1. Concerns about inflation worsened in February, the WRI said. The share of consumers expecting income growth in the next six months fell to the lowest level since January 2021. Plans to buy cars, homes and appliances also fell in February. The share of Americans planning to take time off in the next few months fell.

05

Market expectations for rate hikes have eased after Bank of England hawks say "moderate" rate hikes are needed to fight inflation:

Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said Britain may need to raise interest rates "moderately". The remarks dashed speculation that interest rates will be raised by a larger margin next month. On the nine-member BoE Monetary Policy Committee, Ramsden was one of four members who voted for a 50-basis-point rate hike in February. He said the Bank of England faced its toughest inflation challenge since the bank gained independence in 1997. However, he also said his vote was "very balanced" and resisted aggressive market bets on rate hikes this year. He said current pricing suggested that peaking rates near 2% would keep inflation below the Bank of England's target within two years. "A further modest tightening of monetary policy in the coming months may be appropriate," Ramsden said in a speech in Birmingham, England, on Tuesday. "The word 'moderate' matters here." After the remarks, currency markets lowered bets on future rate hikes.


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