[Daily Outlook] The U.S. PPI unexpectedly maintained its hot momentum in January, with a month-on-month increase of the highest in 8 months

2022-02-16 15:30:59

01

Putin: Russia is ready to continue sending gas to Europe via Ukraine after 2024:

Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a joint news conference after talks with German Chancellor Scholz that Russia is ready to continue sending gas to Europe via Ukraine after the gas transit contract expires in 2024. This will depend on “whether European importers are in demand and profitable, and whether Ukraine’s gas transportation system is technically in good shape is also a determining factor”. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline is technically ready to supply natural gas and enhance energy security on the European continent. "This is a purely commercial project with no politics involved". It is up to German regulators to decide whether to start the Nord Stream 2 gas transmission. Asked about Nord Stream 2, Russian Prime Minister Scholz said, "We are committed to ensuring the delivery of natural gas through Nord Stream 1 to the European continent via Ukraine, Belarus, Poland, and we will do it according to the established agreement." He did not comment on Nord Stream 2's prospects.

02

The U.S. PPI unexpectedly maintained its hot momentum in January, with a month-on-month increase of the highest in 8 months:

U.S. producer prices rose more than expected in January, a sign that companies remain constrained by supply chains and labor shortages and inflationary pressures persist. Data from the Labor Department on Tuesday showed that the producer price index (PPI) rose 9.7% in January from a year earlier and 1% month-on-month, the largest month-on-month increase in eight months. Economists polled by Bloomberg had forecast a 9.1% year-over-year increase and a 0.5% month-on-month increase. "Inflation is everywhere and appears to be picking up on both range and momentum," said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC.

03

ECB Governing Council: Regular net bond purchases under the asset purchase program may end in the third quarter:

The European Central Bank's governing board, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, said the central bank could end net asset purchases as early as the third quarter of 2022, and not raise interest rates soon after. The Bank of France governor said it would be inappropriate for the ECB to maintain net asset purchases under the asset purchase programme (APP) from October because it "has bound us for too long" and as inflation rises from current higher levels Approaching the 2% target, the case for continued monetary stimulus is also insufficient. The ECB currently expects that bond purchases under the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) will end in March, and that regular bond purchases under the APP program will be 40 billion euros ($45.4 billion) per month in the second quarter. It fell to 20 billion euros starting in October. "I still think there should be some transition between the end of PEPP net purchases in March and the end of APP net purchases, but this cutback is likely to follow every two months," Villeroy said in a video address to the LSE. Or a monthly rhythm, not quarterly, so app purchases may end in the third quarter, which is still up for discussion.”

04

Investors bet on the Fed's rate hike process, and the liquidity in the U.S. Treasury market has deteriorated again:

Debate over how much and how fast the Fed will raise interest rates this year has sparked extreme volatility in U.S. Treasury yields and another deterioration in liquidity in the U.S. Treasury market over the past week. The Bloomberg U.S. Government Securities Liquidity Index - a measure of yield deviations from fair value models - is approaching last year's highs hit in early November. At the beginning of November last year, expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates had begun to heat up the previous month, and short-term Treasury yields had historically fluctuated sharply exist the latest bout of turmoil concerns the possibility of the Fed raising rates by 50 basis points in March -- the Fed typically adjusts rates by 25 basis points, causing the 2-year yield to rise 21 basis points on Feb. 10. basis points, the biggest one-day gain since 2009. On the same day, a measure of expected volatility in U.S. interest rates over the next 12 months hit its highest level since May 2010, a period of wild swings in U.S. stocks.

05

Risk sentiment picks up as Bitcoin recovers above $44,000:

Bitcoin rose above $44,000 for the first time since last weekend as optimism over easing tensions in Ukraine revived investor appetite for riskier assets. Bitcoin rose as much as 5.2 percent to $44,449. Other cryptocurrencies also rose, with ether up 7% and Solana up more than 9%; Aave also rose around 7%.


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