[Daily Outlook] How to keep the Fed's anti-inflation credibility? Hawkish policymakers favor a pre-emptive rate hike

2022-02-15 14:52:26

01

Putin hinted at continuing talks with the US and NATO, and Foreign Minister Lavrov called the US proposal constructive:

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told President Vladimir Putin on Monday that Russia should continue negotiations with the United States and its allies over Russia's security requirements in Europe, suggesting the Kremlin will continue its efforts to resolve tensions with the West diplomatically. effort. Putin said "okay" to Lavrov's proposal on state television. Shortly after speaking with Lavrov, Putin also met with Defense Minister Shoigu. The latter said that some of the large-scale military exercises currently underway have ended, while others will end at a later date. He did not specify plans to bring troops back to base, but other officials have said they will return once the operation is over. The remarks are the clearest sign yet that the Kremlin will continue its diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions and may even begin to cool the crisis that has raised fears of war.

02

How to keep the Fed's anti-inflation credibility? Hawkish policymakers favor a pre-emptive rate hike:

St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said the central bank needs to move forward with its plan to raise interest rates to demonstrate its credibility in fighting inflation. "I do think that we need to implement more of the planned withdrawal of easing early on than we did," Bullard said in an interview with CNBC on Monday. "These are numbers that Greenspan has never seen before." "It's about our credibility, and we have to be responsive to the data," he added. Bullard reiterated his view that the Fed should raise rates by 100 percent by July 1 to tackle the worst inflation in 40 years. 2 basis points and began to shrink its balance sheet in the second quarter. The next FOMC meeting is March 15-16. Bullard said it will be up to Chairman Jerome Powell to decide whether to add 25 basis points or 50 basis points for the first time.

03

Traders expect the Fed rate hike cycle to peak in the middle of next year:

In the Eurodollar futures market, the spread between the December 2023 contract and the December 2025 contract fell further into negative territory on Monday, implying a cut in the benchmark federal funds rate of nearly 25 basis points over the 24-month period. At the same time, traders in the U.S. short-term interest rate market are increasingly confident that the Fed's tightening cycle will be implemented soon, far exceeding the Fed's forecast.

04

Lagarde, sticking to the principle of gradualism, said the ECB would act at the "right time":

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde reiterated her insistence that officials would not rush to cancel stimulus in the euro zone. "Any adjustments to our policy will be gradual," she told the European Parliament on Monday. "Our target is 2 percent inflation over the medium term. To achieve that, we will act at the right time." Faced with the highest inflation in euro zone history, Lagarde said after the ECB meeting last month. Become more hawkish, refusing to rule out a rate hike in 2022. Some ECB officials have since said such a scenario is possible; but others have urged caution. The surge in prices has prompted an aggressive response from the Bank of England. The European Central Bank is already scaling back its pandemic-era stimulus, and Lagarde warned last week that tightening monetary policy too quickly could jeopardize Europe's economic recovery. Raising interest rates "will not solve any of the current problems," she said in an interview with Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland. Lagarde's speech on Monday underscored the limitations of monetary policy in times of unusually volatile inflation.

05

Iran says it is eager to get a good nuclear deal in Vienna talks:

The European Union's top diplomat, Josep Borrell, said on Monday that he firmly believes an Iran nuclear deal is "closer" and urged world powers to reach a compromise to restart the troubled pact. Earlier, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) coordinator spoke with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian to discuss ongoing nuclear talks. Earlier, Iran urged all parties to resolve the standoff quickly, but also said it would not budge on key demands. Amirabdollahian told reporters on Monday that a "good deal" was expected within a "reasonable negotiating framework" and that his country was "eager" to reopen it. Meanwhile, he warned the United States and other Western powers to stop "playing" with words, hoping they would show their "real intentions" by lifting economic sanctions on Iran, according to the semi-official Iranian Student News Agency. Moscow said talks in Vienna were in the "final stage" but there were still major differences over how the parties would return to compliance and Iran's demand for assurances from the United States that it would not withdraw from the deal again.


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