[Daily Outlook] The Meta share price staged a historic market value evaporation

2022-02-04 12:42:45

01

Lagarde is unexpectedly hawkish, opening the door for the European Central Bank to raise interest rates this year, and policy guidance is expected to be adjusted soon:

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde no longer ruled out raising interest rates this year, moving closer to the tightening stance of global central banks. Officials privately expect policy guidance to be adjusted as early as next month. Lagarde's speech at Thursday's post-ECB press conference was unexpectedly hawkish, referring to recent higher-than-expected and record high inflation data, in contrast to the central bank's policy statement that maintained the view that inflation will slow In contrast, investors subsequently raised their expectations for a rate hike by the European Central Bank. ECB policymakers agreed that it would no longer be appropriate to rule out a rate hike in 2022 and could end its bond-buying program in the third quarter, according to people familiar with the matter. An ECB spokesman declined to comment.

02

The Bank of England has entered a tightening cycle, and Governor Bailey favors "gradual" rate hikes:

Bank of England Governor Bailey said he preferred a "gradual" rate adjustment rather than a surprise move to bring inflation back to a manageable level. The central bank raised its benchmark interest rate to 0.5% on Thursday. Five members of the nine-member committee, including Bailey, voted in favor of raising interest rates by 25 basis points, and four recommended a 50 basis point rate hike, a magnitude that the bank won independent status in 1997.Never seen before. "I'm in favor of 25 basis points because I think it's sensible to take a step-by-step approach," Bailey said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. "The case for a 50 basis point rate hike is clear. But to me, 25 basis points is not the result of a narrow vote, it's about how we operate in times of monetary policy uncertainty." Bailey said that once asset sales start, central bank assets The final target size of the balance sheet has not yet been determined. The central bank agreed to stop repurchasing government bonds maturing under an 895 billion pound ($1.2 trillion) asset purchase program. The bank will consider aggressively selling more of these assets if the benchmark rate rises to 1%.

03

Fed officials stress gradual tightening, pouring cold water on Wall Street betting on aggressive rate hikes:

Fed officials are pouring cold water on investors who are wildly betting on aggressive rate hikes this year: Not so soon. None of the six Fed officials who have spoken so far this week backed a 50 basis point rate hike in March, while the most aggressive St. Louis Fed president, James Bullard, said only that the market's estimate of five rate hikes this year is not outrageous , the exact number of times depends largely on the development of inflation. Another hawk, Kansas City Fed President Esther George, said ideally the Fed would prefer a gradual approach. That's in stark contrast to Wall Street's forecast of as many as seven rate hikes this year, or even one rate hike of 50 basis points. With inflation rising to the highest in nearly 40 years, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that the Federal Open Market Committee was ready to raise interest rates in March. Powell's refusal to rule out a 50-basis-point rate hike and no guidance on the path of future rate hikes opened the door for quick action if necessary.

04

The U.S. Treasury Department lowered its quarterly long-term bond issuance size again, not ruling out further cuts:

The U.S. Treasury Department cut its quarterly long-term bond issuance for the second time in a row, reflecting the beginning of a decline in Treasury borrowing needs after record sales to raise money for coronavirus aid. The U.S. Treasury Department announced on Wednesday that it would issue $110 billion in long-term Treasuries next week, down $10 billion from November and in line with expectations of many traders. This is the first time since 2015 that the bond issuance has been cut for two consecutive months. Some traders said this month's cuts could be the last in a while, with the Fed signaling it would reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasury securities, forcing the Treasury Department to issue more bonds to the public. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last month that a decision on the bond portfolio would be made at a future policy meeting. At the same time, the Treasury Department slashed the size of all nominal coupon bond issuances by $311 billion in the quarter ended April, and did not rule out further cuts.

05

OPEC+ agreed to increase output by 400,000 barrels per day in March, still insisting on moderate production increase:

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies agreed to another modest increase in output in March, as OPEC+ decided to stick to its plan despite the failure of several members to raise monthly output as planned, sending crude prices higher. After a brief meeting on Wednesday, the 23-member OPEC+ group approved a plan to increase nominal output by 400,000 barrels a day in March, according to a statement posted on its website. The coalition had made the same pledge in previous months, but a Bloomberg survey showed that OPEC+ barely raised output in January due to lack of investment, militias unrest and other reasons. Oil prices surged to a seven-year high above $90 a barrel last month, sparking expectations for a return to triple digits as supplies from OPEC+ and others failed to meet a sharp post-pandemic demand recovery. Rising oil prices have sparked a surge in inflation, frustrating central banks and plunging millions into a cost-of-living crisis. The general difficulty in restoring supply has put OPEC+ Gulf countries - Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Kuwait - under increasing pressure. That has made it nervous about whether spare capacity can cover potential supply disruptions, which could be caused by a further slide in Libyan supply or by incidents such as last month's drone attack in Abu Dhabi.

06

The stagnation of growth caused an uproar, and the Meta share price staged a historic market value evaporation:

Shares of Meta Platforms Inc. tumbled as much as 26% on Thursday morning, the stock's biggest drop ever, after the company reported last quarter that Facebook user growth stalled for the first time ever. And that was just one of many poor metrics in the company's dire earnings report, leading many investors to wonder if the stock's brightest moments were a thing of the past. Meta's sales forecast for the current quarter also disappointed Wall Street, and CEO Mark Zuckerberg acknowledged that Meta faces stiff competition to capture users' time and attention, particularly from TikTok. Zuckerberg's personal wealth may plummet by about $24 billion amid the stock price slump. The bleak outlook and stagnant user growth mark a drastic shift for a company whose shares have risen nearly every year since it went public in 2012, raising concerns that Meta Platforms' flagship product and core ad-money machine have continued to grow for years. After entering the plateau period.


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