Whether a deal can be reached in the coming weeks or months from Iran's nuclear talks will affect forecasts for the supply-demand balance in the oil market, as Iran could increase its oil exports by 1 million barrels a day in the first year of sanctions-free exports. A full resumption of the deal and the lifting of U.S. sanctions would push oil prices lower as the glut of oil on the market would increase. The longer the nuclear talks drag on, the longer it will take for Iran to start increasing oil exports with a deal. Western countries and the United States in the JCPOA fear that a further delay in talks would allow Iran to advance its nuclear weapons activities. Oil prices will be very bullish if the talks in Vienna break down, with market balances expected to tighten in 2023 and 2024, and the standoff between the US and Iran could further fuel tensions in the Middle East.

Oil markets will continue to pay close attention to the Iran nuclear talks, which appear to be an uncertain factor for oil prices later in 2022 and into 2023. Last week, Goldman Sachs said it would push back its forecast for an increase in output over the Iranian nuclear issue until the second quarter of 2023, as talks did not progress. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs, like other Wall Street banks, expects oil prices to hit $100 a barrel as early as 2022.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, OPEC+, are likely to stick to their March oil output increase target at their meeting next Wednesday, despite the downturn in the face of the coronavirus and imminent rate hikes, several sources at the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said. risk, but the group believes demand is recovering. While two OPEC+ sources said oil prices had reached a seven-year high near $90 a barrel, potentially prompting the group to consider further measures, the vast majority of sources said the virtual meeting on February 2 was not expected to be done. make new decisions.

Since August, OPEC+ has raised its monthly output target by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) to gradually withdraw from record output cuts in 2020. According to the current plan, OPEC+ will increase production by another 400,000 barrels per day in March. OPEC+ has resisted U.S. pressure to increase supply more quickly since last year. While OPEC+ has raised its output target, its actual output has not kept pace as some members grapple with capacity constraints, a factor that has also supported prices. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said OPEC+ output fell short of its target by 790,000 bpd in December as members such as Nigeria and Angola struggled to increase output.

Banks and analysts, including Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan, expect oil prices to top $100 a barrel later this year on tight OPEC+ spare capacity and strong demand. However, some OPEC+ sources believe that the recent rise in oil prices has been driven more by geopolitical tensions than fundamentals.

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