2022-01-24 17:28:51
Market Review
U.S. stocks closed lower on Friday and posted their worst week since the coronavirus outbreak. Technology stocks led losses following a poor earnings season and expectations of higher U.S. interest rates. The S&P 500 closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time since 2020. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 fell the most among major U.S. stock indexes, with streaming giant Netflix Inc. leading losses of more than 20 percent.
The U.S. earnings season so far has been mixed and may not inspire risk appetite in equities. Markets are also bracing for a rate hike by the Fed. Economists polled by Bloomberg expect policymakers to raise interest rates for the first time in more than three years in March before shrinking their balance sheets soon. In addition, geopolitical tensions have also made the market more uneasy. Ethan Harris, head of global economics at Bank of America Global Research, wrote that the global economy faces a number of risks, including geopolitical events, however, we think the biggest near-term risk is that the Fed is seriously lagging behind and must fight inflation in earnest.
Market Outlook
This week (the week of January 24th to January 30th), the market will usher in a series of heavy data, including the fourth quarter GDP and personal consumption expenditure data of the United States, and many European and American countries will announce the PMI data for January and the fourth quarter. GDP data, as well as Australia's fourth-quarter inflation data, New Zealand's fourth-quarter CPI data, the US December durable goods orders and PCE data, and China's January PMI data. In terms of central banks, the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve will announce their interest rate decisions, and the market will pay particular attention to further clues on the timing of the Fed raising interest rates. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, there is only a 10% chance that the Fed will keep its policy rate unchanged in March.
①On Monday (January 24), the initial value of the Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States, the euro area, France, Germany and the United Kingdom in January.
②On Tuesday (January 25), Australia’s CPI in the fourth quarter, Germany’s January IFO business climate index, the UK’s January CBI industrial order difference, the US’s November FHFA house price index, the US’ January Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, IMF Announcing the World Economic Outlook report.
③On Wednesday (January 26), New Zealand's December trade account, the US wholesale inventory in December, the US's December seasonally adjusted new home sales, the Bank of Japan announced the summary of the opinions of the deliberation members of the January monetary policy meeting, and the Bank of Canada announced the interest rate decision.
④On Thursday (January 27), Bank of Canada Governor Macklem held a monetary policy press conference, the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a monetary policy press conference, U.S. fourth-quarter GDP, and U.S. durable goods in December Orders, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China in December, and actual retail sales in Germany in December.
⑤Friday (January 28), Japan's January Tokyo CPI, France's fourth-quarter GDP, Germany's fourth-quarter seasonally adjusted GDP, the euro zone's January consumer confidence index, the euro zone's January economic sentiment index, the United States' 12 The monthly PCE price index, the US January University of Michigan consumer confidence index.
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