2022-01-17 15:32:53
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Summary
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This week (the week of January 17th to January 23rd), the market will usher in a number of heavy economic data, including China's fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data, the UK December employment report, and the European Central Bank. OPEC and IEA will also release their monthly reports this week, such as the minutes of the meeting. Investors will pay close attention to obtain further clues to judge the supply and demand prospects of the oil market. Meanwhile, the Fed's quiet period began on Saturday, Jan. 15, and policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) were unable to comment on the policy this week. Ahead of the Jan. 26-27 policy meeting, investors are closely watching the direction of U.S. Treasury yields and speculating on whether to continue to expect less aggressive tightening from the Federal Reserve.
The U.S. will not release any top-level economic data this week, and aside from the virus and inflation themes, the minutes of the European Central Bank meeting will also be watched by investors. At its December meeting, the ECB's Governing Council appeared to be more concerned about the threat posed by the Omicron strain to GDP growth than its potential for continued price increases. The meeting decided to expand the scale of bond purchases under the Asset Purchase Program (APP) to avoid a gap at the end of the Emergency Anti-epidemic Bond Purchase Program (PEPP) in the first quarter. This decision is highly unlikely to be reversed in the coming months. Gas futures prices have risen since the ECB's December forecast, and the bar for Governing Council members to react to further increases in energy costs may be lowering. Furthermore, if inflation concerns among Governing Council members were widespread enough at the last meeting, the risk is that market participants will tend to move forward their forecasts for the first rate hike.
①On Monday (January 17), China's fourth-quarter GDP, China's urban fixed asset investment annual rate from January to December, China's industrial added value above designated size, China's total retail sales of consumer goods in December, the State Council Information Office held a meeting on the operation of the national economy The press conference, the 2022 World Economic Forum (Davos Forum) will be held, and a new round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil products will be opened.
②On Tuesday (January 18), the UK’s three-month ILO unemployment rate in November, the UK’s December unemployment rate, Germany and the euro zone’s January ZEW economic sentiment index, the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision and outlook report, and OPEC’s monthly crude oil market report.
③Wednesday (January 19), UK December retail price index, UK December unadjusted input PPI, UK December CPI, Germany December CPI annual rate final value, Canada December CPI, US December housing starts and construction permits , IEA released the monthly crude oil market report, the European Central Bank released the minutes of the December 2021 monetary policy meeting, and the central banks of Indonesia, Norway, and Turkey announced interest rate decisions.
④Thursday (January 20), Japan's December merchandise trade account, Australia's December seasonally adjusted unemployment rate and employment changes, China's January one-year and five-year loan market quoted interest rates, the euro zone's December CPI, the United States The annualized total of existing home sales in December.
⑤Friday (January 21), Japan's December national CPI, the UK's January Gfk consumer confidence index, the UK's December seasonally adjusted core retail sales, Canada's November retail sales, the euro zone's January consumer confidence index, Japan The central bank announced the minutes of the December monetary policy meeting, the Bank of Italy announced the quarterly economic bulletin, and the February futures of NYMEX New York crude oil were affected by shifting positions and changing the month. trade.
⑥ On Saturday (January 12), the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced its weekly position report.
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