Oil Prices Not Afraid the Virus, Short-term Strong

2022-01-05 17:55:30

Summary

On Tuesday (January 4), the U.S. dollar fell against most currencies because rising commodity prices boosted resource-based currencies, while the yen remained at a nearly four-year low as the U.S. Treasury yield curve became steeper. Gold futures prices closed higher. Although U.S. Treasury yields rose, the disappointing December U.S. manufacturing economic data and the uncertainty caused by the Omi Keron mutant strain still supported the gold price. U.S. oil rose by more than 1% in late trading after OPEC said it would stick to its production plan and increase monthly crude oil production in February by 400,000 barrels per day, in line with market expectations.

As oil prices rise, OPEC+ maintains a small production increase plan for February; U.S. oil once rose more than 2%, setting a new high since November 26 to $77.64/barrel; Burundi oil hit a new high of $80.55/barrel since November 25; market paired Concerns about the impact of the omicron epidemic on demand have eased, and global oil supplies are expected to be tighter than previously expected.


In view of the fact that oil demand has basically withstood the impact of the omicron epidemic, OPEC+ on Tuesday approved an increase of 400,000 barrels of daily production in February. Analysts of the organization lowered their expectations for oversupply in the first quarter on Monday, and they expect supply growth in other oil-producing countries to slow. Oanda’s senior market analyst for the Americas, Ed Moya, said that as OPEC+ has shown confidence in the prospects of global crude oil demand being only a limited blow, oil prices have begun to rise all the way. In addition, geopolitical risks such as tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and lengthy negotiations on the Iranian nuclear agreement It also supports higher oil prices.


Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that given the low hospitalization rate, the proliferation of omicron has not weakened oil demand. Oanda's Moya said that unless risk appetite deteriorates or the stock market declines, Brent should stay in the $80 per barrel range for a while, and WTI may consolidate around $77.


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