Daily Outlook: Inflation rates remain high, and the Bank of Russia once again raised interest rates aggressively

2021-12-20 11:07:48

01

Democratic Senator Manchin announced that he does not support Biden's economic agenda:

Democratic Senator Joe Manchin stated that he would not vote for the Biden Economic Agenda Bill, which actually stifled the possibility of Biden's economic agenda being passed in Congress early next year. Manchin from West Virginia stated that he would not support Biden's $2 trillion economic agenda as it is now, and said that the Democrats did not make any actual changes to the legislation during the negotiations. "If I can't go back and explain to the people of West Virginia, I can't vote for it. And I can't vote to continue this legislation. No way," Manchin said on the "Fox News Sunday" program. "This is saying no to this legislation."

02

Fed Governor Waller: The first rate hike may be in March:

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that after deciding to end the asset purchase plan early, the Fed may start raising interest rates as early as the March 15-16 meeting. “The whole purpose of speeding down code reduction is to speed up the process greatly to the early end of March, thereby making the March meeting possible. This is the intention,” Waller said in response to questions after a speech in New York on Friday. "It will depend on the data, but March is the first meeting that may raise interest rates."

03

The core members of the European Central Bank turned to eagle to warn of upside risks in inflation, highlighting the possibility of faster policy tightening:

Eurozone officials have called for vigilance against inflation, saying that the European Central Bank’s medium-term forecast faces upside risks. Francois Villeroy de Galhau, the governor of the Bank of France, said on Friday that the gap between the European Central Bank’s latest inflation rate forecast for 2023 and 2024 and the target level is “uncertainty”. The latest forecast is 1.8% and the target is 2%. The Bundesbank report shows that Germany's inflation rate by 2024 will be higher than 2%. Governor Jens Weidmann called for caution, because the euro zone is facing "upside risks."

04

Goldman Sachs: The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates three times in 2022:

Goldman Sachs economists said that the Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates three times next year, raising the benchmark interest rate to 1%. After the Bank of England unexpectedly raised interest rates by 15 basis points to 0.25% on Thursday to curb inflation, economists adjusted their expectations, and now say that the first rate hike is expected in February. Economists such as Steffan Ball wrote in a report, “The Bank of England is currently willing to tighten policy. We now expect that there will be 25 basis points of interest rate hikes in February and May respectively, provided that the new crown mutation The economic impact of the omicron strain is modest and roughly in line with our baseline forecast."

05

Inflation rates remain high, and the Bank of Russia once again raised interest rates aggressively:

The Russian Central Bank raised interest rates by 100 basis points for the second time this year, speeding up the tightening of monetary policy when inflation showed little signs of slowing down. The Bank of Russia raised interest rates to 8.5% this time, which is its seventh consecutive rate hike, in line with the expectations of most economists in the Bloomberg survey. Data released this week showed that Russia’s inflation rate is twice the central bank’s 4% target, and expectations for further price increases this month have risen to record highs. Although interest rates have increased by 425 basis points since the beginning of this year, Russia’s inflation rate has remained high due to the combined effects of global inflationary pressures and local factors.

06

The United States launched the second round of bidding for the release of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and the deadline for bidding is January 4:

The Biden government's release of strategic oil reserves to stabilize oil prices has entered the second round, and the deadline for bids is the first working day of 2022. The U.S. Department of Energy announced on its website that 18 million barrels of high-sulfur crude oil will be released from oil storage depots in Texas and Louisiana. The tender will end on January 4 and deliver on February 1 to March 31. 

07

Turkey's stock market plummeted, triggering a full-market circuit breaker twice within an hour:

Turkey's Istanbul Stock Exchange suspended all listed stock trading. The stock market suffered the second biggest selling spree this year on Friday, which triggered several market-wide circuit breakers, and the lira fell to a record low. After the Istanbul Stock Exchange 100 Index plunged 7%, the exchange’s stocks, stock derivatives and bond repurchase transactions were automatically suspended twice within an hour.


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