Daily Outlook: The IMF expects that the global economic growth rate will be lowered, affected by the omicron variant

2021-12-06 11:58:23

01

The November NFP report in the United States is intriguing. New jobs were the lowest in the year but the unemployment rate dropped:

The number of non-agricultural employment in the United States recorded the smallest increase this year in November, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% unexpectedly. Although these data look mixed, they may still push the Fed to accelerate the withdrawal of monetary stimulus measures during the epidemic. Data released by the US Department of Labor on Friday showed that the number of non-agricultural employees increased by 210,000 in November, and the data for the previous two months have been adjusted upwards. The labor force participation rate rose slightly to 61.8%.

02

The US service industry index rose to a record high due to strong orders and employment indicators:

U.S. service providers expanded at a record speed in November. Due to stable consumer demand, business activities have been further strengthened, and orders have remained firm. The November Service Industry Index released by the Institute of Supply Management on Friday rose to 69.1 from 66.7 in October, exceeding the expectations of all economists in the Bloomberg survey. Thanks to the rapid growth of wages and the accumulation of savings, Americans have the desire and funds to spend money in the service industry. The ISM index’s corporate activity indicator rose to a new record high, and the new orders index remained at a record high.

03

The Fed’s accelerated reduction plan is expected to remain unchanged, and hawkish officials said the non-agricultural employment report is very strong:

The November non-agricultural employment report showed that despite the decrease in the number of new jobs, the unemployment rate in the United States has fallen sharply, and the Fed may continue to accelerate the reduction. St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said that "except for new non-agricultural employment, the report appears to be very strong overall." He agreed to end debt purchases in March, and pointed out that “the household survey part of the non-agricultural report shows that employment has increased by 1.1 million. This indicates that the data report may be revised.”

04

The market lowered the Bank of England's December interest rate hike expectations, as officials said they wanted to observe more data:

Leading hawkish officials from the Bank of England stated that before deciding to raise interest rates, it is wiser to wait for further data to determine the economic impact of the omicron variant. Investors therefore lowered their bets on interest rate hikes in December. Official Michael Saunders, who voted in favor of raising interest rates last month, said that the new strain will be the key to determining the Bank of England's next interest rate decision, and the market speculates that the Bank of England may postpone interest rate hikes this month. He said that even if the UK avoids higher levels of restrictions, this strain may affect both demand and supply.

05

European Central Bank President Lagarde: firmly believes that the inflation rate will fall in 2022:

"Inflation looks like a bump," "We know how painful it is," European Central Bank President Lagarde said at Friday's event. "But the uplift will eventually fall." The European Central Bank "firmly believes that the inflation rate will fall in 2022."

06

The IMF expects that the global economic growth rate will be lowered, affected by the omicron variant:

International Monetary Fund (IMF) President Georgieva predicts that as the number of cases of the omicron mutant strain increases, the organization will reduce its expectations for a global economic rebound. “We may lower some of our forecasts for global economic growth in October,” Georgieva said at a meeting hosted by Reuters on Friday. She said that the new mutant strain "may soon weaken confidence." The IMF predicted in October that the global economy will grow by 4.9% next year. As for 2021, the organization lowered its forecast to 5.9%.


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