Daily Outlook: Goldman Sachs expects that the Fed will cut down and raise interest rates at a faster rate due to inflationary pressures

2021-11-26 11:30:18

01

Goldman Sachs expects that the Fed will cut down and raise interest rates at a faster rate due to inflationary pressures:

Goldman Sachs Group economists said that as inflationary pressures are rising, the Fed is expected to tighten monetary policy sooner than previously expected next year. Goldman Sachs economists such as Jan Hatzius told clients in a report on Thursday that the Fed will double the reduction of its large-scale asset purchase plan to $30 billion per month starting from January next year, and will reduce interest rates from zero in June. Increase nearby. They stated that the Fed will subsequently raise interest rates in September and December, and raise interest rates twice in 2023. They previously expected to raise interest rates in July and November.

02

ECB officials believe that sufficient policy options need to be preserved after the December meeting:

The minutes of the European Central Bank’s October 27-28 meeting indicated that “it is important that the Management Committee reserves adequate options for future monetary policy actions, including after the December meeting.” Some people have suggested that the outlook for inflation is uncertain and should be kept open. Position Chief Economist Philip Lane expects the medium-term inflation rate to be less than 2%, supply chain bottlenecks and energy prices are seen as upside risks. "Some indicators that reflect the market’s expectations for the future path of short-term money market interest rates are difficult to match the European Central Bank’s policy interest rate forward-looking. The guidelines are coordinated".

03

Excessive liquidity distorts the currency market, and the European Central Bank's overnight interest rate exceeds the 3-month Euribor for the first time:

The record surplus of cash is distorting the European currency market, making the cost of overnight borrowing for euro zone banks higher than the three-month period. After the European Central Bank poured a large amount of cash into the market, banks had to scramble to find a place to store these funds. This has led to a shortage of short-term German bonds, and this situation is particularly serious when the balance sheet is adjusted due to year-end reporting factors.

04

The Riksbank kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.00%, in line with expectations:

According to a statement issued by the Riksbank in Stockholm, the bank kept the key interest rate unchanged at 0.00%. All 16 economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted that the bank will keep interest rates unchanged at 0.00%

05

Germany’s economic growth rate was revised down in the third quarter, dragged down by the decline in investment:

Affected by the decline in investment spending, the growth rate of the German economy in the third quarter was lower than the initial level. Total output increased by 1.7%, slower than the 1.8% announced by the German Statistics Office at the end of October. Private consumption grew by 6.2%, which was the main driving force for the quarter. However, the government has cut spending, and investment in machinery and automobiles fell by 3.7%, and investment in the construction industry fell by 2.3%.

06

The Japanese government said that the economic drag of the epidemic has weakened:

The Cabinet Office of Japan stated in its monthly economic report that Japan believes that the severe economic situation caused by the epidemic is gradually easing, but the recovery continues to show weakness. The government raised its assessment of consumer spending for the first time in 13 months; lowered its assessment of exports for the second consecutive month; and lowered its assessment of output value for the first time in two months.

07

The UAE stated that there was no “pre-positioned position” before the OPEC+ Petroleum Conference:

The UAE stated that OPEC+’s December 2 decision will be made “collectively”. At this time, traders are discussing whether OPEC+ will suspend production. The UAE stated that it will not pre-set a position on the OPEC+ oil production strategy before the meeting next week. "The UAE still fully supports the OPEC+ Alliance of Major Oil-Producing Countries," the official media tweeted citing sources from the Ministry of Energy as saying. "There is no preset position regarding the next meeting."


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