Daily Outlook: The anti-epidemic blockade jeopardizes economic recovery, and the ECB's stimulus policy timetable faces tests

2021-11-22 14:34:33

01

Biden’s tax and expenditure bill successfully passed through the House of Representatives. New energy, rich man’s tax, etc. are at a glance:

The US House of Representatives passed a $2 trillion bill on Friday and transferred the bill to the Senate. The bill is the core of President Joe Biden’s economic agenda. It includes increasing capital investment in the social safety net and raising taxes on businesses and the wealthy. The Senate may make major adjustments to the version passed by the House of Representatives. The bill may be subject to more adjustments. It requires the support of all 50 members of the Senate Democrats and at the same time, in the face of opposition from Republicans, it must also comply with the complex rules of the Senate to avoid lengthy speech procedures.

02

Policymakers all voiced last week that the Fed may consider accelerating the pace of reducing bond purchases:

Just a few weeks ago, the Federal Reserve had just made a plan to scale down its huge bond purchases in an orderly manner. Now, the U.S. central bank seems to be considering accelerating the pace. Three decision makers—Vice Chair Richard Clarida, Councilor Christopher Waller, and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard—indicated last week that when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on December 14-15, it may discuss speeding up the reduction.

03

The anti-epidemic blockade jeopardizes economic recovery, and the European Central Bank’s stimulus policy timetable faces tests:

In the face of the resurgence of the epidemic, European countries have resumed the implementation of anti-epidemic blockade measures, which may hit the economic recovery and pose challenges to the timetable for the European Central Bank to withdraw emergency stimulus measures. In the eastern region, where vaccination rates are low, Austria became the first country on Friday to re-implement extensive restrictions. Previous restrictions only for unvaccinated people failed to curb the surge in infections. Non-essential industries and commerce have also been closed in parts of Germany, while the Netherlands has ordered shops and bars to close ahead of schedule.

04

The foreign exchange self-regulatory organization is reported to be advocating banks to monitor proprietary trading volume and curb betting on unilateral trends:

In order to prevent the recent strength of the renminbi from causing excessive betting on unilateral trends, the self-regulatory organization of the Chinese foreign exchange market industry is trying to strengthen risk management through the monitoring of bank's proprietary trading volume. According to people familiar with the matter, some of the large domestic banks in China, as major members of the foreign exchange market self-discipline mechanism, have proposed to market participants that banks should maintain exchange rate risk neutrality in customer-to-customer and proprietary trading, and improve the risk management assessment mechanism, including Quantitative monitoring of transaction volume.

05

The chief economist of the Bank of England expressed doubts about the certainty of a rate hike in December:

Huw Pill, chief economist at the Bank of England, expressed doubts about the certainty of interest rate hikes in December, saying that the decision will be in a "delicate balance" state and pointed out that economic recovery has encountered obstacles. Pill said at an event in Bristol that “there is no quick way” to bring the inflation rate back to the 2% target, and the central bank does not have the tools to repair the supply chain disrupted by Brexit and the epidemic.

06

So far this year, the global IPO scale has exceeded the 600 billion U.S. dollar mark, setting the best annual record:

Driven by the upsurge of blank check companies and the high valuation of companies cashing out, the scale of this year's global initial public offering (IPO) broke the previous record. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, with 6 weeks left before the end of this year, approximately 2,850 companies and special purpose acquisition companies have raised more than US$600 billion through IPOs, setting a new record for the number of transactions and the scale of financing set in 2007.

07

UBS nominated Colm Kelleher as chairman to succeed Weber:

UBS Group nominated former Morgan Stanley president Colm Kelleher as its next chairman and hired a manager with extensive experience in banking and wealth to help lead the company's digital transformation. UBS said in a statement on Saturday that the 64-year-old Kelleher will participate in the board election at the company's annual meeting in April and will succeed Axel Weber. This confirms an earlier report by Bloomberg News that UBS is discussing hiring Kelleher as chairman. The bank also nominated Lukas Gaehwiler as vice chairman.


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