2021-11-16 10:37:35
The former governor of the Federal Reserve expect the central bank to raise interest rates to at least 3%:
The two former Fed governors said that in order to control inflation, the U.S. central bank may have to raise the federal funds rate target to 3% or higher. Former New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley and former Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker made the above observations in interviews with Bloomberg TV’s Lisa Ambramowicz, Jonathan Ferro and Tom Keene respectively on Monday. "They may start after June or a little later, and the level of interest rate hikes is higher than people's expectations," Dudley said. "I certainly think the peak will be much higher than the 1.75% predicted by the US Treasury market."
With high inflation, more and more people are calling on the Fed to complete the reduction as soon as possible:
More and more market observers said that given the highest inflation rate in 30 years, the Fed may have to speed up the reduction process. Such calls include former New York Fed President Bill Dudley and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, and it comes at a difficult time for the Fed. The Federal Reserve just announced its plan to slow down its bond purchase plan less than two weeks ago, and pointed out that if necessary, it may adjust the rate of reduction of $15 billion per month. A week after the Fed made the decision, the report showed that the consumer price index had the fastest annual growth rate since 1990.
The labor shortage in the United States is the highest in 70 years, and inflation is expected to remain high next year:
Jefferies Group LLC said that wage pressures will become the main driver of inflation in the United States in the second half of next year under the continuing shortage of available labor. Aneta Markowska, chief financial economist at Jefferies, said in a report on Monday, “We believe that the United States is entering the most tense labor market environment since the 1950s. Therefore, salary pressure is unlikely to ease next year. Even if the supply chain bottleneck weakens, the inflation rate will remain high. ".
The New York State manufacturing index increased more than expected, and the sales price index rose to its highest level in a decade:
With orders growing and employment accelerating, New York State’s manufacturing sector grew more than expected in November, and the sales price index rose to the highest level since the data was counted in 2001. Data released on Monday showed that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Manufacturing Survey Index rose to 30.9 from 19.8 a month ago. A number higher than zero indicates that the economy is expanding. The November data exceeded the forecasts of all economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The report shows that inflation shows little signs of abating. The indicator of receiving prices climbed 7.3 points to 50.8, and the indicator of prices paid for raw materials rose to 83, the second highest in history.
The Governor of the Bank of England said he was “very disturbed” by the surge in inflation. Watching for Tuesday’s employment data:
The Governor of the Bank of England Bailey told British MPs that as more and more evidence showed that labor shortages would push up wages, he was "very disturbed by the inflation situation." Bailey told the Finance Committee of the House of Commons on Monday that the labor market looks "tight", but he hopes to study and judge the job market after the furlough program ends before deciding whether to raise interest rates. On Tuesday, the Bureau of Statistics of the United Kingdom will release the first official employment data since the end of the mandatory vacation program on September 30, which will provide preliminary clues to the possible policy actions of the Bank of England.
The European Central Bank Lagarde expects that the inflation rate will fall below the 2% target in the medium term:
European Central Bank President Christina Lagarde is firmer in her expectation that the euro zone inflation rate will ease with the economic rebound and will fall below the 2% target in the medium term. "As the economic recovery continues and the supply bottleneck eases, we can expect that the price pressure on goods and services will normalize," Lagarde told members of the European Parliament on Monday. "We expect wages to increase at a higher rate next year. This year, the risk of the second round of effects is still limited."
Governor of the Bank of Canada: Interest rate hikes are "getting closer":
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said that the Bank of Canada is "getting closer and closer" to raising interest rates as the economy's idle capacity is gradually being digested. This statement is consistent with the forward-looking guidance provided by central bank officials. Although a large amount of monetary stimulus is still needed to fully recover the economy, Macklem said that the central bank is still focused on the goal of stabilizing inflation when the risks associated with price pressures increase. The British "Financial Times" published a review article written by Macklem on Monday.
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