Daily Outlook: The bond market’s expectations for U.S. inflation over the next ten years have risen to the highest level since 2006

2021-11-15 11:23:28

01

The US consumer confidence index fell to a 10-year low in early November, and inflation expectations rose to the highest since 2008:

In the United States, consumer confidence unexpectedly fell sharply in early November, and Americans are increasingly worried about rising prices and their impact on financial conditions. Data released on Friday showed that the initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index fell to 66.8 from 71.7 in October. Lower than the expectations of all economists surveyed by Bloomberg, the median forecast of economists was 72.5.

02

The bond market’s expectations for U.S. inflation over the next ten years have risen to the highest level since 2006:

On Friday, the bond market’s inflation expectations for the next ten years rose to the highest level since 2006. The breakeven inflation rate for 10-year inflation-protected bonds rose by more than 5 basis points to 2.76%. After the US consumer price index was higher than expected, the breakeven inflation rate continued to rise this week.

03

The Fed’s monetary policy should not overreact to inflation:

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said that although inflation will cause pain to Americans, the Fed should not overreact to this issue because price increases may be temporary. Kashkari said on CBS’s “Face the Nation” program on Sunday, “We need to take inflation very seriously, but my point is that even if the pain caused by inflation is real, we don’t need to react to some temporary factors. over".

04

The United Nations Climate Conference reached the "Glasgow Climate Convention" and approved the global carbon market framework:

Participants reached a consensus at the 26th United Nations Climate Conference (COP26) high-level meeting in Glasgow and approved the regulations for creating a global carbon market framework. Although China and India, the two largest emitters in the world, objected at the last minute, the final name of the "Glasgow Climate Convention" still retains the controversial proposal. These include the reduction of coal and fossil fuel subsidies, and the introduction of new climate targets next year. The proposal was passed after 11 hours of discussion.

05

Japan plans to introduce an economic stimulus package of more than 40 trillion yen, which is expected to be announced next week:

According to Nikkei News, the Japanese government plans to formulate an economic stimulus package of more than 40 trillion yen (350 billion U.S. dollars) in fiscal expenditures. Nikkei reported on Friday that the plan is expected to be announced next week and will include a plan to distribute 100,000 yen to people aged 18 and below. The government will issue bonds to cover part of the expenditure. The report did not specify the source of the news. As the stimulus plan is about to come out, Japan’s economy may fall into contraction again in the third quarter. The summer epidemic has impacted consumption, and poor supply chains have also hindered production. The quarterly GDP data is scheduled to be released next Monday.

06

Musk reduced his holdings of more Tesla shares, cashing out a total of approximately US$6.9 billion in a week:

Musk sold Tesla stock for the fifth consecutive day, and the total cash out reached approximately US$6.9 billion. According to regulatory documents, Musk sold 1.2 million shares on Friday, valued at approximately $1.2 billion. After asking his Twitter fans if they should sell 10% of their Tesla shares, he reduced their holdings of shares worth $5.7 billion earlier this week. Tesla shares fell 2.8% on Friday and closed at $1,033.42 in New York. This week's decline expanded to more than 15%, the largest weekly decline since March 2020.

07

Johnson & Johnson will split into two listed companies, focusing on pharmaceuticals and consumer products:

Johnson & Johnson said it would split into two listed companies, one focusing on pharmaceuticals and medical equipment, and the other focusing on consumer products. Affected by this news, Johnson & Johnson's stock price rose. The healthcare giant stated in an announcement that it will split its consumer division within 18 to 24 months. The department has been plagued by lawsuits involving products such as baby powder. Johnson & Johnson's pharmaceutical business performed the strongest. Johnson & Johnson's total revenue of US$83 billion in 2020, the pharmaceutical sector contributed 55%, the other 28% came from the medical device sector; the consumer sector contributed 17%.


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