Economists surveyed by Bloomberg said that as concerns about inflation have intensified, Fed policymakers are expected to announce this week that they will begin to scale back large-scale asset purchases. Among the 49 economists surveyed, most predict that the Fed will initiate a reduction in November and end in mid-2022 by reducing US Treasury bonds by 10 billion US dollars and 5 billion mortgage-backed securities (MBS) each month. To curb the current monthly purchase of 120 billion U.S. dollars. Regarding the time of the first interest rate hike, the ratios predicted for 2022 and early 2023 are very close, with the latter being slightly more; they expect interest rates to rise to 1.75% by the end of 2024, which is 0.25 percentage points higher than the forecast obtained in the September survey.

The U.S. Treasury Department resumed cutting the supply of Treasury bills to keep it below the debt ceiling. This reminds investors who wish to invest in short-term debt that the debt ceiling problem still exists, especially when the Democrats in the House of Representatives have no plans to solve this problem. The Ministry of Finance said on Tuesday that it plans to issue US$10 billion of 4-period Treasury bills on November 4, a decrease of US$50 billion from the previous two issuances; the issuance scale of its 8-period Treasury bills remains unchanged at US$25 billion. Meanwhile, the House of Representatives Majority leader Steny Hoyer said that the Democratic Party has no plans to include the debt ceiling increase in Biden's $1.75 trillion tax and social expenditure bill.

The new Japanese government and the central bank confirmed that they are committed to cooperating to achieve the 2% inflation target, a commitment made in 2013, which may curb market speculation about the early withdrawal of stimulus measures. The Governor of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated his commitment at a meeting with senior government officials on Tuesday, as the central bank said in a press release after the meeting between Haruhiko Kuroda, Minister of Finance Shunichi Suzuki and Minister of Economy Daigihiro Yamagiwa.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies are expected to stick to a moderate increase in production this week, ignoring calls from oil-consuming countries to increase their efforts to curb soaring oil prices. The 21 interviewees surveyed by Bloomberg all expected that OPEC and its partner Congress at the November 4 meeting approved the planned increase of 400,000 barrels per day in December, and continued to gradually resume production that was suspended during the epidemic.

Bank of America strategists said that the era of abundant liquidity is coming to an end, and US stocks will not stay at record highs for long. So far, several major Wall Street firms have warned that the surge in US stocks may not last forever, and Bank of America is the latest one. So far, the stock market has been largely unaffected by the bond market crash. Strong corporate profits and the lack of better investment alternatives influence people's risk appetite. Gonzalo Asis and other Bank of America strategists wrote in a report on Tuesday, "This divergence of stocks and debts is unlikely to continue. As the monetary policy environment develops towards an unfavorable stock market, U.S. stocks will realize this sooner or later."

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