Daily Outlook: The energy crisis threatens economic recovery, steel demand will continue to increase next year

2021-10-15 11:55:36

01

The rise in US producer prices slowed down in September, and the rise was lower than expected:

The US producer price index rose at a more moderate rate in September, indicating that the pressure on the supply chain that pushed up production costs and the shortage of raw materials were slightly eased. Data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that the producer price index for final demand in September increased by 0.5% month-on-month and 8.6% year-on-year. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the core PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 6.8% year-on-year.

02

Fed officials Bullard hopes to complete the reduction before the end of the first quarter of next year, believing that inflation may remain high:

St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said that with the strong US economy and tight labor market, the sharp rise in inflation this year is likely to continue. Most central bank officials think this is a temporary situation. “Although I do think this situation has the potential to dissipate naturally in the next six months, I would not say that the probability is high enough that we can count on it,” Bullard said in a video seminar hosted by Euro 50 Group on Thursday. "I think the probability of dissipating and lasting is 50% each."

03

The Federal Reserve Harker stated that it will not raise interest rates until the end of next year or the beginning of the next year:

Patrick Harker, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, said, “Unless the inflation situation changes significantly, I don’t expect to raise interest rates until the end of next year or early 2023.” The forecast before the Tatar epidemic has been revised down. By 2022, economic growth will slow to around 3.5%, and by 2023 it will drop to 2.5%," Harker said in a speech prepared for the video event on Thursday.

04

EU leaders may approve emergency measures to deal with the energy crisis:

EU leaders are set to approve member states to take emergency measures next week to alleviate this unprecedented energy crisis. According to the draft statement seen by Bloomberg News, the head of government may allow EU member states and the European Commission to “make full use of” the toolbox released on Wednesday to provide short-term relief to households and businesses. The energy crisis will be an important topic of the EU summit on October 21-22. According to the draft statement, the leaders will also call for the study of medium and long-term measures to “mitigate excessive price fluctuations” and improve the EU’s energy resilience. And ensure a successful transition to a green economy.

05

The energy crisis threatens economic recovery, steel demand will continue to increase next year:

According to the World Steel Association, despite the deepening of the energy crisis threatening the global economic recovery from the new crown epidemic, steel demand should rise again next year. The organization said on Thursday that consumption will increase by 2.2% to 1.896 billion tons in 2022, a slower growth rate than this year's 4.5%. In addition, as China's real estate crisis has weakened demand, the main driver of growth will be outside China.



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