2021-10-12 10:59:30
WTI oil prices closed above US$80 for the first time since the end of 2014, as the energy crisis boosted demand:
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures closed above US$80 a barrel for the first time since the end of 2014. The increasingly severe power crisis from Europe to Asia has boosted oil demand before the winter. WTI futures rose 1.5% on Monday, and Brent crude oil futures approached $85 per barrel. Winter is approaching in the northern hemisphere, and global coal and natural gas inventories have soared in low prices, prompting some companies to switch to petroleum products such as diesel and fuel oil.
The U.S. inflation expectations indicator is approaching a 7-year high, and the Fed may lose control of price pressures:
A closely watched indicator of long-term inflation expectations in the U.S. bond market indicates that the Fed may lose control of rising inflationary pressures. The 5y5y forward breakeven inflation rate is close to the highest level in about seven years. This is the second time the index has issued a similar warning in recent months. In May, a similar rise prompted Brian Sack, the former head of monetary and financial market analysis for the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, to join other officials, warning the Fed of the need to signal a policy adjustment.
Aluminium prices hit a 13-year high, as energy costs soared aggravated supply pressure:
The price of aluminum has risen to the highest level since 2008, and the supply of this energy-intensive metal has become increasingly tight due to the deepening of the power crisis. Industry insiders jokingly call aluminum "solid state electricity." It takes about 14 megawatt-hours of electricity to produce one ton of aluminum, which is equivalent to the electricity consumption of an average household in the UK for more than three years. If the aluminum industry with an annual output of 65 million tons is regarded as a country, it will be the fifth largest electricity consumer in the world. This means that aluminum is one of China's primary goals to curb industrial electricity use.
A one-time salary increase does not mean that inflation will continue:
Philip Lane, chief economist of the European Central Bank, said that employers’ one-time pay raises in response to recent price spikes do not mean that inflation will continue to rise. He said at a meeting on Monday that "distinguishing between temporary and persistent changes in wage growth rates" will play an important role in assessing the progress of potential inflation. A single change in wage levels does not mean a change in the trend of potential inflation paths. Lane's speech indicated that he personally advocates patience while the European Central Bank waits for signs of rising inflation.
Bitcoin broke $57,000 and traders tried to push it back to record highs:
Bitcoin has risen more than US$57,000 for the first time since May, and speculators are betting that the largest cryptocurrency will retest the record highs touched earlier this year.
Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, does not expect the Fed to raise interest rates next year:
The chief economist of Goldman Sachs believes that the slowdown in US economic growth next year will mean that the Fed is not in a hurry to raise interest rates. In an interview with Bloomberg Television on Monday, Jan Hatzius said that although the Fed is expected to announce a reduction in asset purchases at its next meeting, the process will take several months and interest rates will not increase until 2023. "What will happen in 2022, I think it will be a cyclical slowdown and intensification, and inflation will also fall," he told Tom Keene and Jonathan Ferro. "In this environment, I don't think they will directly increase the rate of inflation. Information action", any decision will depend on economic data.
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