Daily Outlook: JPMorgan expects that the risk of stocks and debts will rise, due to inflation surprises or continue until 2022

2021-10-08 11:00:44

01

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin warned of inflation risks and worried that U.S. bond yields might rise to 3.5%:

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin warned about government debt breaching the ceiling and the Biden administration’s overspending behavior, worrying that this may further increase inflation. At the Bloomberg Global Investment Video Conference on Thursday, Mnuchin said, “I do worry that this will be continued inflation, and the 10-year Treasury bond yield may easily reach 3.5%, which in turn will raise the government’s borrowing costs and create budgetary problems.”

02

The number of people claiming unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States last week fell more than expected:

The general decline in the number of first-time jobless claims in the United States last week indicates that the labor market has continued to improve. According to data released by the Ministry of Labor on Thursday, as of the week ending October 2, the number of people who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time totaled 326,000, a decrease of 38,000 from the previous week. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected the median to fall to 348,000. As of the week of September 25, the number of continuous claims for unemployment benefits decreased to 2.7 million.

03

JPMorgan expects that the risk of stocks and debts will rise, due to inflation surprises or continue until 2022:

JPMorgan Chase analysts believe that continued inflation may trigger simultaneous declines in bonds and stocks, causing headaches for investors who use fixed-income securities to protect their portfolios from falling stocks. The sell-off in the bond market in September coincided with a 4.8% drop in the S&P 500 Index, which hit multi-asset investors. A basket of risk parity funds tracked by JP Morgan Chase fell 3.6% that month. BlackRock's 60/40 target allocation fund fell 2.5%, marking its biggest monthly decline since March. This pain may not be over.

04

Vasle of the European Central Bank called for caution against inflationary pressures:

Bostjan Vasle, a member of the European Central Bank Management Committee, said that the current tight supply and labor shortage may cause the accelerated rise of prices to continue for a longer period of time. The current surge in inflation is “mainly driven by one-off or temporary factors, as well as developments related to the pandemic,” Vasle, who also serves as the governor of the Central Bank of Slovenia, told Bloomberg before the ceremony marking the 30th anniversary of the bank.

05

Apple’s car plan "IronHeart": It is reported that the iPhone will be used to control air conditioning, seats, radios, etc.:

Apple CarPlay has been used by millions of motorists to control music, obtain driving directions and make phone calls, and the company is now seeking to expand its influence in the automotive field. According to people familiar with the matter, Apple is developing technology that can access functions such as the air-conditioning system, speedometer, radio and seats. This internally called "IronHeart" plan is still in its early stages and needs to be carried out in cooperation with automakers.

06

The market firmly believes that the Fed will reduce its weight in November unless the employment data is much worse than expected:

According to eight strategists surveyed by Bloomberg, if the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States is this number, investors will question the health of the economy and make U.S. Treasury yields lower in the near future. This will also cause the market to raise bets on the Fed to postpone or slow down the pace of the reduction. However, economists have estimated that the median number of non-agricultural employment is 500,000, which is more than twice this number. Although most investors think there is little suspense about the Fed's reduction, they still have to wait for the Fed to clarify the time and speed of the reduction. Supply chain bottlenecks and the expected start of the code reduction in November have brought inflationary pressures, which has caused U.S. Treasury yields to continue the rise in the third quarter.


Risk Warning: The above content is for reference only, and does not represent JRFX’s position. JRFX does not assume any form of loss caused by any trading carried out in accordance with this article. Please consult your financial planner for your investment portfolios and manage your own risk.


JRFX is an online CFD broker providing more than 50 products for Forexmetals and commodities. Open a trading account within a minute. Deposit 100USD and download our MT4 trading platform now!


Online Service Create Account MyJRFX Download
Online Service