Daily Outlook: Most of Citi's institutional clients are concerned about persistent inflation

2021-09-30 14:21:24

01

Powell and Lagarde defended inflation, believing that price pressures will not continue to rise:

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the Governors of the Bank of England all expressed cautiously optimistic views on the economy on Wednesday, believing that the disruption of the global supply chain that pushes up inflation will not persist.

02

US Congressional Budget Office: Cash and special measures to avoid federal defaults may be exhausted by the end of October:

The U.S. Congressional Budget Office stated that the Treasury Department may hit the debt issuance limit as early as the end of October, and issued the latest warning to members of Congress who have been unable to resolve the debt ceiling problem. The cross-party Congressional Budget Office said in a report on Wednesday that unless the debt ceiling is raised or suspended, the Treasury will run out of cash and special measures used to avoid federal defaults at the end of October or early November. Treasury Secretary Yellen said on Tuesday that the Treasury Department estimated that it would run out of cash on October 18.

03

Most of Citi's institutional clients are concerned about persistent inflation, and US stocks are expected to be at risk of correction:

Citi’s survey of institutional clients shows that most investors are worried about persistently high inflation, believing that the probability of a 20% drop in US stocks is greater than a 20% rise. According to a survey of more than 90 pension funds, mutual funds and hedge funds this month, although most people expect the S&P 500 Index to rise moderately next year, price pressures and the Fed’s policy reversal pose major risks to the stock index.

04

The number of second-hand housing contracts in the United States rebounded to a seven-month high in August:

A measure of the number of second-hand housing contracts in the United States rebounded to a seven-month high in August, as potential buyers welcomed more attractive prices and more inventory. According to data released by the National Association of Realtors on Wednesday, the second-hand housing contract volume index increased by 8.1% from the previous month to 119.5, the first increase in three months. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected a median increase of 1.4%. The above data shows that the residential market activity is strengthening, after it fell back from last year's record high. Historically low loan interest rates, slower house price growth and increased housing prices may reinvigorate demand that has weakened this year.

05

OPEC predicts a daily supply gap of 1.2 million barrels of crude oil in October and 900,000 barrels in November:

According to the OPEC Secretariat document being reviewed by the OPEC Joint Technical Committee, world oil supply in October will be 1.2 million barrels/day lower than demand, and 900,000 barrels/day lower in November. The supply gap in 2021 is expected to be 1.1 million barrels per day, slightly higher than last month’s 900,000 barrels per day. The agency predicts that by 2022, the oil market will return to oversupply, and the supply will exceed demand by 1.4 million barrels per day, slightly lower than the 1.6 million barrels per day predicted last month.

06

A carbon border tax may give birth to protectionism, calling for a lower limit on carbon prices:

A senior official of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that a carbon border tax may give birth to protectionism, and setting an international carbon price floor is a better way to reduce emissions. "We are worried that adjusting the carbon border tax may give rise to trade protectionism, may create disagreements, and may only target a small part of the products we want to cover," IMF Vice President Li Bo told the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum). Institutions Forum) organized a video event.


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