Daily Outlook: OPEC predicts that the natural gas crisis will expose the global oil market to the risk of tightening supply

2021-09-24 11:00:40

01

The number of first-time jobless claims in the U.S. unexpectedly rose for the second consecutive week:

The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States unexpectedly increased last week. Among them, the number of applicants from California increased sharply, showing signs of fluctuations in data this week, while the labor market continues to recover in an all-round way. Data released by the Labor Department on Thursday showed that in the week ending September 18, the number of first-time jobless claims rose to 351,000, and the median estimate of Bloomberg survey economists was reduced to 320,000.

02

The growth rate of US service industry and manufacturing activity fell to its lowest level in a year in September:

Affected by the supply chain, labor market, and delta strain, the US service industry and manufacturing activity indicators in September hit their lowest levels in the next year. According to IHS Markit, the comprehensive purchasing managers' index fell to 54.5 from 55.4 a month ago. A reading above 50 indicates economic growth, which has been declining month by month since it hit a record high of 68.7 in May.

03

The net worth of American households hit a record high, thanks to the soaring stocks and house prices:

U.S. household net worth rose to a record high in the second quarter, as stocks rose sharply and real estate values appreciated at an unprecedented rate. According to a report released by the Federal Reserve on Thursday, the net worth of households in the second quarter increased by US$5.8 trillion, an increase of 4.3%, to US$141.7 trillion. Among them, the value of stocks increased by 3.5 trillion U.S. dollars, and the value of real estate increased by 1.2 trillion U.S. dollars.

04

Long-term U.S. Treasury yields hit the largest increase in 18 months, and traders expect the U.S. interest rate hike to be advanced:

US long-term Treasury yields hit the largest increase in 18 months. After the Fed’s hawkish policy statement was released, traders moved forward their expected first rate hike to the end of 2022. As of noon in New York time, the 30-year Treasury bond yield rose by 11 basis points to 1.92%, the highest increase since the outbreak of the epidemic in March 2020. The federal funds rate futures contract that expires in December 2022 has risen about 5 basis points to 0.28% in the past two days, indicating that the market expects that the US will raise interest rates by 25 basis points by then 100%.

05

The Fed’s reverse repurchase usage hit a record high this week, and the fabric of excess liquidity has no solution in the short term:

After the Fed raised its counterparty trading limit and hinted that it was about to shrink the scale of asset purchases, investors' use of the Fed's reverse repurchase tool continued to hit record highs. The Fed's overnight reverse repurchase operation on Thursday involved 77 counterparties, with a total of $1.352 trillion in cash deposited by the Fed. New York Fed data shows that this set a record high of $1.28 trillion on Wednesday.

06

The White House considers citing the defense production law to obtain data on corporate chip supply:

US Secretary of Commerce Raymondo said on Thursday that the Biden administration is considering invoking national security laws during the Cold War to force companies in the semiconductor supply chain to provide chip inventory and sales information. In an interview, she stated that the goal of this move is to alleviate the bottleneck of chip supply and discover possible hoarding behavior. For several months, her team has been trying to clarify how the company allocates semiconductor supplies, and has convened multiple company meetings in different industries, but has failed to improve transparency. Many companies have refused to disclose business data to the government.

07

OPEC predicts that the natural gas crisis will expose the global oil market to the risk of tightening supply:

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) predicts that due to the shortage of natural gas, companies are forced to switch to oil for power generation, and the global oil market supply may be tightened. According to OPEC internal documents seen by Bloomberg, if natural gas prices remain high for a longer period of time, world oil consumption may increase by an additional 370,000 barrels per day. Oil inventories in developed countries will therefore be tightened and will be 39 million barrels lower than the average level by the beginning of 2022, instead of the 17 million barrels predicted in the OPEC benchmark scenario.


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