The U.S. producer price index rose more-than-expected in August, reigniting the debate about when the Fed will withdraw its stimulus measures. The market fluctuates sharply because the epidemic continues to spread and disrupts the economic recovery and pushes up inflation caused by tight supply. The central bank still reiterated its stance on loose monetary policy, and the stock market was dragged down by mixed economic data and the Fed’s unclear timetable for downsizing.

This week (the week of September 13-19), many countries will announce heavy economic data, including the U.S. August CPI, retail sales, initial request, EIA, consumer confidence, etc. The Fed will usher in a period of silence and will not publish Any speech. Previously, many analysts believed that the Fed would announce a big move on the interest rate decision in September this year.

Recently, many officials, including Fed Chairman Powell, have delivered speeches. Many officials seem to have acquiesced that the current interest rate will be maintained for a period of time, but they are divided on whether to give additional forward-looking guidance, and many officials have explicitly excluded The possibility of negative interest rates. Fed officials generally believe that the US economy is still facing downside risks in the short term, but some officials are more optimistic about the speed of economic recovery. Among them, Cleveland Federal Reserve Chairman Meister believes that the economy will achieve positive growth in the fourth quarter of this year. In addition, Fed officials have agreed that further fiscal stimulus is necessary, but officials have disagreeed on the tools to control the yield curve.

Market highlights this week

① On Monday, OPEC released its monthly crude oil market report.

② On Tuesday (September 14), the unemployment rate in the United Kingdom, the CPI in the United States, and the IEA release monthly crude oil market reports, and the National Energy Administration releases electricity consumption data for the entire society around the 15th of each month.

③ On Wednesday (September 15) API crude oil inventory report, China's industrial added value, UK CPI, EIA, and the National Bureau of Statistics released monthly reports on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, and European Commission President Von der Lein issued annual national conditions to the European Parliament Message.

④ Thursday (September 16) New Zealand's GDP, US retail sales, and the US initially filed for unemployment benefits last week.

⑤ Friday (September 17) Eurozone CPI final value and US consumer confidence.

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