The US Department of Labor will announce the August non farm payroll report. Following the strong non farm payroll performance in June and July, the importance of the August non farm payroll report is self-evident. After the global central bank meeting, the market is still controversial about the Fed’s timetable for reducing QE during the year. If the new non farm payroll population continues to grow strongly in August, the time for reducing QE may be extended to this month, and the U.S. dollar will reverse its decline. Gold falls, otherwise, the time for reducing QE will continue to be delayed, the US dollar will continue to be under pressure, and the price of gold will rise to a higher level.

It is currently estimated that the non farm payroll population will increase by 748,000 in July, the unemployment rate will be 5.2%, and the average hourly wage will increase by 4.0%. Forecasts of 25 large investment banks show that major investment banks have a large gap in the expected growth of non farm payroll population in August. Specifically, the growth rate of non farm payroll population in the United States after the August seasonal adjustment is expected to be between 400,000 and 1 million, and the unemployment rate is expected to be introduced. At 5.1%-5.3%, the average annual rate of hourly wage increase is expected to be 3.6%-4.1%.

Market analysts believe that the disappointing US August ADP employment report on Wednesday seems to have poured cold water on the optimistic expectations of Friday’s non farm payroll report, although the positive correlation between the two has gradually weakened in recent years, and the non farm payroll data has improved. Investors and the U.S. dollar are expected to be encouraged to start valuing the Fed’s quantitative easing (QE) reduction announced at this month’s meeting, and postponing to November or December will trigger a fall in the U.S. dollar. Again, this is not a question of "if" but " When is the question.

Fed officials have made it clear that they are working on a plan to reduce bond purchases, but have not promised a date for action. Strategists at TD Ameritrade, which is expected to announce the code reduction in December, believe that if the next two monthly employment data perform strongly, they may move forward one month when the expected code reduction is announced. Art Hogan, a strategist at National Securities, believes that if the data on Friday is good, a reduction may be announced as early as this month.

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