Daily Outlook: OPEC+ expects that the global oil market will still be in short supply this year

2021-09-01 11:47:23

01

Eurozone inflation rate rises to its highest level in a decade. The ECB’s temporary view of price increases has been tested:

The Eurozone inflation rate rose to its highest level in a decade in August, which puts a test for policymakers' views that post-crisis inflation pressure rises are temporary. Consumer prices (CPI) in the Eurozone increased by 3% year-on-year, exceeding the expectations of all 37 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Excluding volatile items such as energy and food, the core inflation rate rose 1.6% year-on-year, the highest since 2012. Although global supply tensions are pushing up costs, the price surge in the Eurozone is also driven by one-off factors, such as lower comparative figures in the same period last year.

02

Canada’s economy unexpectedly shrank by 1.1% in the second quarter.

The Canadian economy unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter, raising questions about the country's economic resilience. Statistics Canada announced on Tuesday that the annualized rate of GDP in the April-June period fell 1.1%, and the revised first quarter was a 5.5% increase.

03

U.S. residential prices rose to a record high in June, driven by low interest rates and tight housing availability:

U.S. housing prices once again set the biggest increase in more than 30 years. According to a statement issued on Tuesday, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Schiller National House Price Index rose 18.6% year-on-year in June, up from 16.8% in May, marking the 13th consecutive month of accelerating growth. The increase in June was the largest since 1988. In the case of tight housing supply, low-interest loans stimulate buyers to compete for prices.

04

The US consumer confidence index fell to a six-month low in August, affected by the spread of Delta virus:

US consumer confidence fell to a six-month low in August, indicating that concerns about delta strains and rising prices are dragging down the economic outlook. Data released on Tuesday by the World Large Enterprise Research Council showed that the consumer confidence index fell to 113.8 in July from 125.1 after the previous month’s revision. These data indicate that the spread of the delta strain has weakened consumers' confidence in the economy and may curb service industry consumption. The recent surge in the number of COVID-19 infections has already weighed on restaurant bookings, air travel and hotel occupancy rates. At the same time, the increased spending by Americans in supermarkets and gas stations may further suppress consumer confidence.

05

The Fed's overnight use of reverse repurchase tools hit a record high:

The oversupply of funds in the US money market has caused investors to deposit funds in a major instrument of the Federal Reserve to a new high. According to data released by the New York Fed, 82 participants in the Fed's overnight reverse repurchase operation on Tuesday invested a total of US$1.19 trillion in the tool, which exceeded the previous record high of US$1.147 trillion set on August 25. Given that Wednesday enters the new month, the use of this tool is expected to decrease, but as there is almost no sign of a low tide of massive funds, demand will eventually rise.

06

OPEC+ expects that the global oil market will still be in short supply this year, and the oversupply will reappear next year:

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies predict that despite the organization's gradual recovery of production, the global oil market will continue to tighten this year, but will become oversupply again by 2022. These data will be submitted to the organization's joint technical committee on Tuesday, and are expected to convince OPEC and its partner countries that they can increase production in October as generally expected. The ministers will meet at 17:00 Vienna time on Wednesday. OPEC+ data shows that even if it advances its plan to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day per month, crude oil inventories will continue to decline for the rest of this year. In the next four months, the average decline in global inventories is expected to be 825,000 barrels per day.

07

U.S. retail stock speculation crazes employment in securities brokerages. Fidelity will also recruit 9,000 people in the U.S.:

Fidelity Investments plans to recruit 9,000 new employees across the United States by the end of the year, as the company expects the boom in stock trading will bring record business growth. The Boston-based company said in an announcement that most of the new positions will be customer service or technical positions. Coupled with the previous plan to hire about 4,000 employees within six months from April, this makes Fidelity’s recruitment this year expected to nearly double the number of employees last year. The background of these recruitments is the retail stock speculation during the Covid-19 pandemic.


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