The U.S. Dollar Index Rises; Market's Risk Aversion Continues to Heat Up

2021-08-18 17:47:34

Summary

On Tuesday (August 17), the U.S. dollar index rose by 0.6%, the largest increase since August 6. After U.S. economic data showed an uneven recovery, the U.S. dollar against all major developed and emerging market currencies was subject to mid-month investment. The effects of balancing capital flows have continued the upward trend. Spot gold gave up its earlier gains due to the strengthening of the US dollar. The mixed economic data from the United States indicated that the economic recovery was uneven. Oil prices fell for the fourth consecutive trading day. U.S. oil fell more than 1% due to the surge in the number of confirmed cases of the new crown in Japan, weak demand in Asia, and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies believe that the market does not need more crude oil.

After U.S. economic data showed an uneven recovery, the U.S. dollar continued its rally against all major developed market and emerging market currencies due to the impact of mid-month investment rebalancing capital flows. Fed Chairman Powell said in an event with students and educators that the new crown epidemic may exist for "a period of time", but his speech hardly affected the market. Although the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen fell against the US dollar, they rose against most G-10 currencies, boosted by investors' safe-haven operations.


The U.S. dollar index rose 0.6% at one point, the largest increase since August 6. The previous July retail sales data released by the United States exceeded most economists’ expectations. The U.S. dollar was supported by monthly hedging and rebalancing capital flows, and it was also boosted by the selling of high beta currencies by model accounts as the risk tone deteriorated.


Valentin Marinov, head of G-10 strategy at Crédit Agricole in London, said that the price trend of the foreign exchange market is dominated by investor worries. Investors worry that the global economy may not be able to withstand the impact of the tightening of global financial conditions caused by the normalization of the Fed’s policy. .


The euro fell 0.6% to 1.1712 against the dollar, and the euro's risk reversal became more bearish. The pound fell 0.78% to 1.3741 against the dollar.


The Swiss franc hit the highest level in nine months against the euro; European traders said that corporate demand for the Swiss franc boosted the exchange rate trend, and the exchange rate has solid support near the 1.07 level. The Swiss franc rose to highs during the year against the Australian and New Zealand dollars. The U.S. dollar rose 1.4% against the Swedish Krona intraday to 8.7707, the highest since November last year.


After New Zealand announced anti-epidemic lockdown measures, the New Zealand dollar fell 1.7% against the U.S. dollar, and investors doubted whether the Federal Reserve Bank of New Zealand would advance the widely expected rate hike on Wednesday. The Australian dollar exchange rate against the US dollar fell 1.2% to 0.7243, the lowest since November 13.


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