Risk Appetite in the Forex Market Declines

2021-08-17 17:51:41

Summary

On Monday (August 16th), the US dollar rose slightly. Commodity currencies including the Australian dollar and Canadian dollar fell with oil prices due to signs of slowing economic growth and the spread of variants of the coronavirus. Gold prices continued to rise, and spot gold hit a high of $1,789.31 per ounce since August 6. Concerns about delta variants and weak economic data prompted investors to pursue safe-haven assets; U.S. bond yields and inflation-adjusted actual returns The decline in the rate also boosted gold. U.S. WTI crude oil futures closed at their lowest point in a week. Analysts said that the new crown epidemic in the U.S. reignited and economic data showed that the economic recovery was hindered, which put oil prices under pressure.

The currency market as a whole maintains a wide trading range, as investors are cautious about making big bets at the beginning of a busy week for the central bank. But the dollar's long position rose to its highest level since March 2020, indicating that the dollar's decline is more a temporary setback than the beginning of a structural downtrend.


The euro fell 0.16% to 1.1778 against the dollar. The dollar fell 0.4% against the Swiss franc to 0.9122, the lowest in about a week; the euro fell 0.5% against the Swiss franc, the biggest drop since July 8.


The dollar fell 0.32% to 109.24 against the yen; after the euro fell below the 200-day moving average against the yen, it approached the key support level of 128.60, the low of July 20. The USD/JPY volatility curve flattened, and some gamma buying appeared when the Jackson Hole risk was looming; the back end of the curve dragged down the curve structure. DTCC data shows that the trading volume of yen options is higher than the recent daily average level. Noteworthy transactions include 108 put options that expire on October 29 for $150 million.


The Australian dollar fell 0.43% against the US dollar to $0.7338. Before the New Zealand Federal Reserve's policy meeting on Wednesday, the New Zealand dollar fell 0.33% against the US dollar to 0.7019. Analysts generally expect the bank to raise its benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2014.


The U.S. dollar rose 0.47% against the Canadian dollar to 1.2574 because Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau is expected to hold an early election on September 20. He believes that the high vaccination rate and post-pandemic economic rebound will help him extend and strengthen Control of power.


Although the currency market volatility is already at a very low level, due to the quiet summer trading, it has reached a low point in nearly 2021. In addition, the minutes of the most recent meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia will be released on Tuesday.


Risk Warning: The above content is for reference only, and does not represent JRFX’s position. JRFX does not assume any form of loss caused by any trading carried out in accordance with this article. Please consult your financial planner for your investment portfolios and manage your own risk.


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