On August 16, international oil prices fell by more than 2%, falling for the third consecutive trading day. China's July manufacturing output and retail sales grew less than expected, and refinery activity slowed. The International Energy Agency said last week that due to the spread of Delta mutant strains, the global oil demand rebound suddenly reversed in July, and the pace of recovery is expected to be slower before the end of the year. Goldman Sachs believes that oil demand will only be temporarily affected. Jay Hatfield, portfolio manager of the InfraCap MLP listed exchange fund, said that the news surrounding Delta was worse than we expected. With the increase in cases, the short-term outlook has become more and more worrying. The long-term indicators are still relatively bullish on oil, but In the short term, the delta variant and its impact on demand will not fade quickly.

The US government called on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to "open the gates" to increase production to support the global economic recovery, but the world's largest oil industry forecasting agency did not "help." Instead of responding to the calls of the Biden administration to increase production, they all lowered the OPEC oil production expectations required to maintain market equilibrium in the next few quarters. The International Energy Agency (IEA), the U.S. EIA and OPEC have lowered their expectations for OPEC crude oil demand in almost every quarter before the end of 2022. Of the 18 expectations, only two have been raised, and the magnitude is small.

Compared with a month ago, both IEA and OPEC believe that the increase in crude oil supply from non-OPEC members will be stronger. But this largely reflects the supply agreement reached by OPEC+ oil-producing countries on the 18th of that month shortly after the July forecast was issued. According to the agreement, OPEC's overall output target will be raised by 400,000 barrels per day per month until all production cuts in 2020 are fully restored. If no further adjustments are made, this process is expected to continue until September 2022.

This week (the week of August 16-22) economic data and blockbuster events are more intensive. In terms of economic data, the United States will release July industrial output data and retail sales data known as “terrorist data”. Eurozone In terms of GDP and CPI, the central bank, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce interest rate resolutions, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce the minutes of monetary policy meetings. In addition, Fed Chairman Powell and other officials will deliver speeches.

① On Monday, Japan’s second quarterly adjusted real GDP quarterly rate initial value, China’s July industrial added value, China’s July retail sales of consumer goods, and the National Bureau of Statistics released monthly reports on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities.

② On Tuesday (August 17), the Eurozone’s second quarter quarterly adjusted GDP quarterly rate revision, US retail sales in July, US industrial output in July, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s speech, and the Reserve Bank of Australia announced the minutes of its monetary policy meeting.

③Wednesday (August 18) UK July CPI, Eurozone July CPI annual rate final value, New Zealand Federal Reserve announced interest rate resolution and monetary policy statement, UK July CPI, Federal Reserve meeting minutes.

④ On Thursday (August 19), Australia's July unemployment rate was adjusted seasonally, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States changed every week, and the European Central Bank announced the minutes of the monetary policy meeting.

⑤ Friday (August 20th) China August LPR, UK July retail sales, and Canada June retail sales.