On Wednesday (August 4), US crude oil is almost stable, and short-term oil prices may continue to fall, but the space below may not be too large, and investors can be cautious in shorting. The epidemic has dealt a huge blow to oil prices, and it has also caused the market to have huge concerns about oil market demand, and this kind of worry may continue. However, given that there is still no significant decline in market demand and the expectation of short supply still exists, there may not be much room for short-term decline. Investors are advised to be cautious in shorting.

The continuous decline in WTI crude oil in recent days is mainly due to the lower-than-expected manufacturing data in China and the United States released on Monday (August 2) and the continued spread of the delta variant virus, which reignited the market’s worries about the global economic recovery. The optimistic outlook for oil demand in the second half of 2021 is expected to pose a direct impact. In addition, the API crude oil inventory announced on Tuesday (August 3) decreased by 879,000 barrels, which is expected to decrease by 1.4 million barrels, putting pressure on oil prices.

However, this concern of the market has not been recognized by major institutions. Petroleum CEO Bernard Looney said that he may see a decline in global crude oil demand, but the current decline will be slight; BP expects the oil market to be expected. Continue its rebalancing process.

The short-term downward momentum of WTI crude oil due to the supply and demand side has been released, which means that WTI crude oil is expected to usher in a rebound in the future. However, the heavy risk this week still depends on the US July non-agricultural data released on Friday (August 6). The Fed may choose between rising inflation and the spread of the virus based on the performance of the labor market. Many officials have expressed support for the Fed to officially reduce bond purchases starting in September. Therefore, if the non-agricultural data perform well, it is expected to have an impact on the overall liquidity of the market and drag WTI crude oil down further.

Focus on the 50-day moving average 71.56 above, and further focus on the high of 72.99 on June 16 and the high of 74.23 on July 30. Below, focus on the August 3 low of 69.20, and further focus on the 100-day moving average of 67.08 and the July 20 low of 65.01.

Risk Warning: The above content is for reference only, and does not represent JRFX’s position. JRFX does not assume any form of loss caused by any trading carried out in accordance with this article. Please consult your financial planner for your investment portfolios and manage your own risk.

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