2021-07-26 17:56:08
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Summary
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On Monday (July 26), spot gold is trying to hold the $1,800 per ounce mark, but analysts warned that given the strength of the dollar, the gold market may be at risk of selling. Pepperstone research director Chris Weston said that at present investors need to watch closely, whether the price of gold can hold the $1797-90 support zone has become the key. As gold failed to absorb enough buying last week, TD Securities analysts turned bearish on the price of gold. This week the market ushered in the initial value of US GDP in the second quarter, and important data such as the GDP of Germany, the Eurozone and Canada. In addition, the Federal Reserve will hold interest rate resolutions. At that time, investors can find more clues to guide the market direction from Powell.
One problem for gold is that it lacks new support factors that could push its price far above the $1,800 per ounce level. The market last week proved this again. Although the stock market plummeted and the yield of U.S. Treasury bonds fell, the price of gold failed to rise. According to Daniel Ghali, commodities strategist at TD Securities. "Despite the continuous decline in real interest rates, the price of gold is still struggling to gain a foothold. The continued weakness of gold prices relative to real yields indicates that its microstructure is fragile. At the same time, gold cannot rebound in a risk-averse trading environment. This highlights Speculative capital flows are still particularly weak. Concerns about global macroeconomic growth prompted a readjustment of the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations, but gold still failed to seize buying, which increased the possibility of a further fall in gold prices." Gainesville Coins Precious metals expert Everette Millman added: "For gold, the downside is more likely. There have been some short-term fluctuations in the price of gold recently. Although the volatility is not large, gold seems to rebound back and forth. We are now biased towards being short on gold."
More and more analysts are beginning to talk about stagflation, believing that this is an increasingly worrying issue for the US economy. Stagflation is an environment of high inflation and low economic growth. Millman said: “Stagflation is a major risk this year. Even Fed members have stated that they expect inflation to last longer. When the so-called temporary inflation dust settles, long-term price pressures may still be higher than the Fed’s target. Combine inflation with lower growth and we will return to stagflation.
This is why the market will pay close attention to the second quarter GDP data released this week. The market generally expects that the US economy will grow by 8.6%. Millman said: "This week's GDP data will be very important. Many strange trends in the US Treasury market are based on the idea that growth will slow, which is definitely good for gold."
On Monday, New Zealand’s June trade account, Germany’s July IFO business climate index, and the United States’ annualized total new home sales after the June seasonal adjustment
On Tuesday, the annual profit rate of industrial enterprises above designated size in China in June, the actual annual retail sales rate in Germany in June, the actual monthly retail sales rate in Germany in June, the CBI retail sales difference in July in the United Kingdom, the initial monthly rate of durable goods orders in the United States in June, the United States Monthly rate of FHFA house price index in May, Consumer Confidence Index of the US Consultative Chamber in July
On Wednesday, the US API crude oil inventory changes for the week ending July 23. Australia’s second quarter CPI annual rate. Germany August Gfk Consumer Confidence Index. Switzerland July Credit Suisse/CFA Economic Expectation Index. Canada's June CPI annual rate. Changes in EIA crude oil inventories in the United States for the week ended July 23.
On Thursday, the Federal Reserve FOMC announced interest rate resolutions and policy statements. Fed Chairman Powell held a press conference. Germany's unemployment rate was adjusted seasonally in July. Singapore's total fuel inventory for the week ended July 28. The Eurozone economic sentiment index in July. Germany's July CPI annual rate initial value. The initial value of the annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the second quarter of the United States
On Friday, St. Louis Fed President Brad made a speech at the European Economic and Financial Center event through Zoom. Japan’s June unemployment rate. The initial value of France's second quarter GDP annual rate. Germany's first quarterly adjusted GDP quarterly rate in the second quarter. The preliminary value of the quarterly GDP rate in the second quarter of the Eurozone after seasonal adjustments. Eurozone unemployment rate in June. Canada's May seasonally adjusted GDP monthly rate. US June PCE Price Index Annual Rate
On Saturday, the total number of wells drilled in the United States for the week ending July 30. China's official manufacturing PMI in July
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