Daily Outlook: Economists expect the Fed to begin underweight bond purchases in early 2022

2021-07-26 11:44:45

01

China and the U.S. will hold the first high-level talks in months amidst continued antagonism:

In the midst of mutual sanctions and arguing, the United States and China will hold their first high-level talks since March, making the effort to stabilize the tense relations between the world's two largest economies more important. U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Sherman-the second U.S. diplomat-will meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Tianjin on Monday. Prior to this, the Biden administration took a series of actions to challenge China's red lines in its internal affairs, prompting Beijing to protest and announce new sanctions on some Americans, including former US Secretary of Commerce Ross.

02

Bloomberg survey: Economists expect the Fed to begin underweight bond purchases in early 2022:

According to a survey conducted by economists by Bloomberg, the Federal Reserve is expected to start reducing its asset purchase plan next year, focusing on mortgage-backed securities (MBS); the central bank is expected to raise interest rates faster than previously thought until the end of 2024 . Slightly more than half of the interviewees expect that MBS underweight will be proportionally faster than U.S. Treasury bonds. Several regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents advocated this approach to cool the real estate market, but Chairman Jerome Powell and New York Governor John Williams sounded a little cold on this proposal.

03

The White House adjusts its inflation talk and fears that the Republican Party will boycott the public opinion and boycott Biden’s policy agenda:

The White House is adjusting its presentation of inflation, as polls show that voters’ inflation concerns have intensified, and Republicans are trying to use rising prices to stifle President Joe Biden’s ambition to spend trillions of dollars in social projects and infrastructure. . Abandoned: words such as "temporary", complicated statistical interpretation of price indicators. Use instead: The president's own verbal explanation. In his speech last week, he tried to acknowledge the anxiety of ordinary Americans about rising prices — including housing, food, natural gas, wood, and used cars — while making them believe that price increases will decrease over time.

04

The PMI of the service industry in the United States fell to a five-month low in July, constrained by factors such as difficult recruitment:

In July, a measure of US service provider activity fell back to a five-month low, reflecting that companies are still struggling to fill job vacancies and replenish inventory. Data released on Friday showed that the IHS Markit Service Industry Purchasing Managers Index fell to 59.8 from 64.6 a month ago. Although the index has weakened since it surged to a record high in May, it is still at a record high. A reading above 50 indicates the expansion of the service industry.

05

Yellen warned that if the debt ceiling is not raised, there may be a risk of default no later than October:

U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said that the Treasury Department will take special measures starting on July 30 to avoid breaking the debt ceiling that will take effect after the end of the two-year moratorium. She urged lawmakers to take action "as soon as possible" to avoid breach of contract. Yellen wrote to parliamentarians on Friday that there is a possibility that the special measures of the Treasury Department have been exhausted, causing the national treasury to run out of cash shortly after the September Congress adjournment. She said that due to huge mandatory expenditures, it is expected that there will be a reduction of US$150 billion in cash and such special measures on October 1 alone.

06

The European Central Bank will remove restrictions on bank dividends:

The European Central Bank stated that it will remove restrictions on banks to repay shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, but urges them to be cautious amidst the uncertainty of the epidemic. The European Central Bank announced on Friday that it has “decided not to extend the proposal to limit dividends to all banks after September 2021.” The bank said, “The regulator will evaluate each bank’s capital and distribution plan as part of the regular regulatory process. Part of it." With the increase in vaccination and the reopening of industry and commerce, the euro zone economy is rebounding, and regulators have little choice but to remove these restrictions imposed by banking executives.

07

The Central Bank of Russia offered the biggest interest rate hike since 2014, suggesting that there may be further actions in the future:

The Central Bank of Russia launched the largest interest rate hike since the 2014 ruble crisis and warned that it may raise interest rates further in the future due to the difficulty of curbing the surge in inflation. The Central Bank of Russia said in a statement that it raised the benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 6.5% on Friday. The rate of interest rate hike was the largest since December 2014, when oil prices plummeted and Russia annexed Crimea, the central bank urgently raised interest rates by 650 basis points.


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