2021-07-21 10:09:44
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Summary
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The rapid increase in the number of new crown cases in the United States and other countries has aggravated people’s fears that the epidemic will worsen again, and caused shocks in global stock markets. At the same time, along with the surge in U.S. Treasury bonds, on July 19, the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has been since February. It fell below 1.2% for the first time since, because the highly contagious Delta variant virus became popular, and the vaccinations in many states in the United States were delayed, causing investors to worry about economic growth. With the spread of the epidemic and rising inflation, investment strategists began to consider a new pessimistic scenario: that is, economic growth has reached its limit. With the rapid spread of Delta variants and central banks are already discussing tightening monetary policy to control inflation, more and more people are beginning to worry that financial markets have become too optimistic. This change in mentality was evident in the performance of various assets on Monday (July 19). S&P 500 index futures fell 1%, and small-cap stocks fell sharply. In Europe, the main benchmark stock indexes fell more than 2%, with energy, banking and travel stocks falling the most. US Treasuries rose, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 1.172%.
The surge of new crown cases in the U.S. triggers renewed fears of the epidemic
The rapid increase in the number of new crown cases in the United States and other countries has aggravated people's fears that the epidemic will increase again, and has caused shock waves in global stock markets. The following chart shows the relatively defensive large technology stocks, and U.S. investors' interest in small stocks has decreased:
U.S. President Biden stated in a speech on the U.S. economy that economic recovery depends on controlling the epidemic. Data analysis shows that in the past 30 days, the average number of new coronavirus cases per day in the United States has tripled. From June 18 to Sunday, the number of new cases rose from 1,2004 to 32,136. The same analysis shows that in the past 30 days, the average number of hospitalizations per day has increased by 21% from 16,000 to more than 19,000. The number of deaths last week increased by 25% compared to the previous seven days, with an average of 250 deaths per day.
In other countries, countries that are experiencing a worrisome increase in the epidemic are re-implementing new crown restrictions. British Prime Minister Johnson declared yesterday as "Freedom Day", ending the epidemic prevention restrictions in England for more than a year, but this has been disrupted by the surge in the number of infected people, warning signs of shortage of supermarket supplies, and his being forced to self-quarantine. The US Federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) warned citizens not to travel to the UK on Monday, raising the UK travel warning to the highest level "Level 4: The new crown epidemic is very serious."
Wall Street has new concerns that the economy has peaked
On Monday, due to concerns that the worsening of the epidemic might undermine the economic recovery, and the market’s worries about rising inflation and bottoming out growth, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed sharply lower, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recorded in mid-May. The biggest single-day percentage drop since. The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its worst single-day performance in nearly nine months. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury fell below 1.2%.
Frank Benzimra, Head of Asian Equity Strategy at Societe Generale, said: "The peak growth is beginning to become a more worrying factor. This is actually one of the factors that prompted us to reduce the allocation of risky assets in global asset allocation. Not only inflation, but also inflation. There are also such growth concerns." Investors were once excited about the prospect of a strong rebound in the global economy stimulated by loose monetary policy and the launch of vaccines. However, under the combined effect of inflationary pressures and the surge in viral infections, the risk that economic growth may not be as optimistic as expected has greatly increased. Moreover, given that global stock markets are near historical highs, there is almost no room for fault tolerance.
Some strategists urge customers to take advantage of the weak market to buy. Marija Veitmane, senior multi-asset strategist at State Street Global, said: "I am firmly in the bargain hunting camp. Supported by the recovery of corporate earnings, the stock market performed very strongly in the first half of the year and we expect corporate earnings to remain strong."
Concerns about growth prospects caused the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to fall below 1.2%, and the safe-haven U.S. dollar rose sharply against the trend
The new crown mutant strain delta has caused investors to worry about economic growth. With the surge in U.S. Treasury bonds, the 10-year Treasury bond yield on Monday (July 19) fell below 1.2% for the first time since February, and once fell to 1.172%. This is below the 14-month high of 1.77% reached in March. The rebound of the new crown epidemic has prompted investors to avoid risks, due to speculation that a new round of epidemic prevention blockade will curb economic activity. As the U.S. Treasury yield fell below 1.2%, the S&P 500 rose twice:
Tony Rodriguez, director of fixed-income strategy at Nuveen, said: “The outlook for economic growth is worrying, and overall hedging adjustments are being made.” Surprisingly, the US dollar, which once stood side by side with U.S. Treasury yields, has recently maintained strong gains. Trend, last week, the dollar index rose by more than 0.6%. On Monday, the U.S. dollar index climbed again, breaking through the 93 mark at one time, setting a new three and a half month high to 93.04.
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