Risk Aversion Boosted the Rise of the USD, and International Gold Prices Turned Down

2021-07-20 10:08:24

Summary

The U.S. dollar rose on July 16, and the U.S. dollar index recorded its biggest weekly gain in a month. In the context of rising market risks, concerns about the frustration of the global economic recovery made the U.S. dollar a safe choice for investors; pound sterling against other G-10 currencies The decline across the board, the market is worried that the UK may face longer-term epidemic prevention restrictions. Gold futures recorded their first decline in 4 trading days. The dollar rose and U.S. Treasury yields stabilized, reducing market demand for gold. However, gold futures still recorded a fourth consecutive weekly gain this week.

Weekly hardware prices fell, and spot gold fell by more than US$20 to a refresh day as low as US$1809.16 per ounce. Although inflation was at a disturbing level, Powell continued to defend his continued support for the US economy on Thursday, reiterating that it is still underweight It was too early, and this caused US Treasury yields to fall to near their lowest point since February on Thursday, and then rebound on Friday, weakening the demand for gold as an alternative investment. International gold prices turned down on Monday, affected by the US dollar index refreshing its highest level since April 5 to 92.902. Market concerns that the surge in new crown cases may inhibit the global economic recovery has boosted the attractiveness of the US dollar.


However, the price of gold still rose by about 0.3% last week. With higher-than-expected inflation, investors are paying close attention to clues about the outlook for monetary policy. So far, most monetary policy officials regard price pressures as temporary and believe that they are not enough to change the stimulus package.


Although gold prices have performed well in recent weeks, investors have shown little interest in reinvesting in gold ETFs. The gold ETF tracked by FactSet showed a net outflow of US$310 million last week. In the past month, the total net outflow of funds was US$914 million. Continued uncertainty about inflation and interest rates in the United States may leave investors on the sidelines for the time being.


Increasing inflationary pressures have made gold regarded as a hedging tool, but broader financial market sentiment remains weak, as the surge in new crown cases supports the dollar’s strength, and the 10-year U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has been at a low of 1.260% since a week and a half. Rebound.


Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA, said: “Some short-covering buying has provided moderate support for early gold prices, but the market has not shown any clear reasons for the continued strength of support.” Global economic growth is beginning to show weakness, especially Asian countries are working hard to contain the highly contagious variant of the new coronavirus Delta and are forced to implement some form of blockade. The specter of high inflation that the market has long worried about is also haunting investors. Fed Chairman Powell has repeatedly stated that any surge in inflation is expected to be temporary, indicating that monetary policy will remain supportive for a period of time, but the market finds Powell’s remarks unconvincing.


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